Thanksgiving is a great time to consider the plight of countless turkeys and what they can teach us about risk:
“[There is] a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days. Fatter and fatter. On the day when its comfort will be at its maximum, there is going to be a surprise. There will be a surprise for the turkey.”
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb
My takeaways are that perceptions can be misleading, present conditions are not indicative of future conditions/events, and comfort can mask risk.